As Duncan elaborated, we are susceptible to errors of reasoning when we rely on common sense:
- When we think about why people do what they do, we place too much emphasis on incentives, motivations, and beliefs, and not enough on the thousands of other influencing factors
- Groups are extremely complicated to predict -- we erroneously apply the logic of "individual" action to groups
- We learn much less from history than we think and are prone to make the same mistakes over and over
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This is part of my 31 (More) Days of #BIF7 blog series.